Milestone to be reached in 2016 unless trend checked - Oxfam
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Global energy demand is likely to grow by 39pc by 2030, or 1.6pc annually, almost entirely in non-OECD countries, according to BP’s latest Energy Outlook 2030.
Consumption in OECD countries is expected to rise by just 4pc in total over the period. Global energy will remain dominated by fossil fuels (at 81pc of global energy demand by 2030), the period should also see increased fuel-switching, with more gas and renewables use at the expense of coal and oil, the report states.
That gradual switching should see renewables, including biofuels, continue to be the fastest growing sources of energy globally, rising at an annual rate of more than 8pc, much quicker even than natural gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel at about 2pc a year over the period to 2030.
“This report helps us to be both realistic and optimistic. It shows there are things we can’t change - like the underlying drivers of energy demand - and things we can change – like the way we satisfy that demand,” said BP chief executive Bob Dudley.
“The main message is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and thereby maximises efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future.”
Oil, the world’s leading fuel today, will continue to lose market share throughout the period although demand for hydrocarbon liquids will still reach 103 million barrels per day in 2030, up by 18pc from 2010.
Global CO2 emissions are likely to rise by about 28pc by 2030 — slower than the current rate of energy demand growth due to the rapid growth of renewables and natural gas. If more aggressive policies than currently envisioned are introduced, global CO2 emissions could begin to decline by 2030, the BP report stated