Leadership

250,000 new jobs to be created by 2015, says report

02.03.2010
A new report by FÁS and the ESRI has forecast that 250,000 new jobs will be generated between now and 2015, which will go some way to compensating for the estimated 330,000 jobs lost between 2008 and 2010.

However, the manpower forecasting report by FÁS and ESRI predicts that while a significant amount of new jobs will be created over the next five years, there will still be 80,000 fewer people working in Ireland in 2015 compared to pre-recession levels.

Jobs recovery will vary depending on sector
According to the report, while employment in most occupations is expected to recover from the lows reached in 2010, the speed and the extent of recovery is likely to vary by occupation.

So while some occupations will emerge with relatively strong employment growth by 2015, others will fail to reach pre-recession levels by that time.

The occupations expected to exceed pre-recession peak levels are concentrated at the higher end of the skill scale. They include professionals and associate professionals (technicians) in the areas of science, engineering, business services and IT.

However, occupations not anticipated to recover to 2008 peak levels include those in the construction and retail sectors such as skilled building workers, production operatives, unskilled manual workers, sales assistants and clerks.

The report also predicts that professionals are expected to rise to 38pc of the workforce in 2015 compared to 34pc in 2008 and 31pc in 1996. When these groups are combined with clerical workers, the forecast suggest that, by 2015, 50pc of workers will be in ‘white collar’ employment, up from 44pc in 1996.

Females workers to exceed pre-recession level
Meanwhile the number of females in employment is expected to exceed its pre-recession level by 2015. Females are gaining share in many occupations, especially high skilled ones, the report says, and it predicts that by 2015 women will account for more than a half of business services professionals and almost a half of all managers.

Male employment in contrast, although growing beyond 2010, is not expected to recover to pre-recession levels by 2015.

Health warning on forecast
The report’s authors attach a health warning to their forecasts, acknowledging that their report is being produced in times of great uncertainty and is underpinned by a number of assumptions concerning the speed of the global economic recovery, competitiveness, the restoration of the financial sector, fiscal balance, nominal wage rates and migratory flows.

However, the authors say they are still confident that the direction of the skills/occupational change projected in the report is likely to materialise.

To read the FÁS/ESRI report on occupational employment forecasts in full, visit www.fas.ie